SrasV1, Psycho, Analysis, bibRecord, 000034

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

Identifieur interne : 000034 ( Psycho/Analysis ); précédent : 000033; suivant : 000035

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

Auteurs : Michael Smithson [Australie] ; Yakov Ben-Haim [Israël]

Source :

Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2015-10.

RBID : ISTEX:E1BA0DA7125F78390536091FCC60DEB11A4472AF

Abstract

Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.

Url:

DOI: 10.1111/risa.12397

Affiliations:

Australie, Israël

Links to Exploration step

ISTEX:E1BA0DA7125F78390536091FCC60DEB11A4472AF

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Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

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Abstract

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